2009 Final: Reflections On A Classic Night

Wow, what an amazing Eurovision.

Yep, really. I think it's probably six years since a contest left us enthralled rather than hacked off. Some of us never thought we'd see such a day ever again and were preparing more with each passing year to write an obituary for the song contest. The catalyst of course was the decision of the organizers to introduce 50/50 voting this year where each countries vote was based half on public voting and half on a panel of music experts. The fact that in a tie, the public vote in each country would take precedence led a lot of us to assume that the end result wouldn't be that different. Weren't we so wrong!.

Saturday's voting was an utter delight. Countries voted for other countries who in many cases had never received anything from them ever. Ex-Soviet and Ex-Yugoslav countries actually cast big votes for countries outside their immediate back yard.

The downside from an entertainment point of view was that Norway's victory was pretty much assured very very early, yet that had more to do with the length of the voting process and the insistence still that everyone (finalist or not) gets to vote, and the utter superiority of "Fairytale" over everything else. Another contest with total televoting would no doubt have been closer, with the likes of Turkey, Greece, Armenia and Ukraine pushing Norway, but better a fair result than an orgy of ex-pat cheating like the last five years. It was utterly wonderful to see both Greece and Ukraine fall on their arse after their arrogant singers and ridiculous props, let's hope as Graham Norton proclaimed that this a permanent return to a SONG contest.

A quick look back at results versus predictions:


1. Norway 387 (we said 4: we of little faith - see above)
2. Iceland 218 (11: we thought too gentle but happy to be wrong)
3. Azerbaijan 207 (8: we thought to poppy but happy to be wrong)
4. Turkey 177 (3: still did better than it should have)
5. UK 173 (9: we thought too weak a song.... etc... you get the jist)
6. Estonia 129 (20: honestly gobsmacked at this result)
7. Greece 120 (2: Give up Sakis, you're old and you've been rumbled)
8. France 107 (12: Great result for a classy lady)
9. Bosnia-Herzegovina 106 (7: Near enough :o)
10. Armenia 92 (5: Armenia get their worst result with their best song)
11. Russia 91 (6: like Armenia, shifted down by the juries, hurrah!)
12. Ukraine 76 (1: Mega-Hurrah! this pile of poo got the result it deserved, now go away!)
13. Denmark 74 (15: Near enough)
14. Moldova 69 (14: Spot on, miraculously)
15. Portugal 57 (13: Near enough, didn't understand the fan hype over this)
16. Israel 53 (18: Near enough)
17. Albania 48 (25: OK it was catchy but still happy with the result)
18. Croatia 45 (24: Lack of other ex-YU to vote for the only reason this elevator music was elevated)
19. Romania 40 (19: Spot on, see Moldova!)
20. Germany 35 (16: In a pool of averageness we were a little wrong)
21. Sweden 33 (17: see Germany)
22. Malta 31 (10: Chiara sang so much better in the semi and this was her weakest song)
23. Lithuania 23 (21: We knew this piece of class would be forgotten, still a great tune)
24. Spain 23 (22: Serves them right for going Turkish)
25. Finland 22 (23: The semi-final jury chose this! FFS!)

As for the UK, we were mightily critical about the UK selection show as Jade, bless her, was parachuted in and the UK public were brainwashed to vote for her in an appalling set of events, yet credit where it's due, she recovered spectacularly from an early on-stage collision (see the video below) to deliver a stonking show and a top five result like manna from heaven for the UK. Whether she'll ever be heard of again is another issue.



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Nul Points Net 2009 Final Predictions

Ok, as Eurovision day 2009 dawns, time to put our heads on the block and attempt to predict the final result. This is emphatically NOT a wishlist or list of favourites. Our favourites invariably fare very badly. At least this year Sasha Son and his divine Lithuanian song have made the final but are doomed by the draw.

This is based on recent history, rehearsal reports and the fact that ex-pats and neighbours (and indeed draw order) will still play a huge part in determining the votes. Key overlooked fact of the 2009 voting: if a countries televote and jury vote produce an overall tie, the televote will take precedence... so it's really not 50/50 after all.

So here we go with the final prediction:

01 Ukraine
02 Greece
03 Turkey
04 Norway
05 Armenia
06 Russia
07 Bosnia-Herz.
08 Azerbaijan
09 United Kingdom
10 Malta
11 Iceland
12 France
13 Portugal
14 Moldova
15 Denmark
16 Germany
17 Sweden
18 Israel
19 Romania
20 Estonia
21 Lithuania
22 Spain
23 Finland
24 Croatia
25 Albania

Good luck to everyone and let's hope for a great show!

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Semi Two Reflections

Well it's Friday and the night before the biggest event of the year for many of us Eurofreaks. First of all a brief look back at last night's second semi.

The overriding reaction in may places on the interwebby was "Eastern Europe bloc voting again, sigh", especially in Ireland where of course their position as seven times winner is year-on-year thrown into starker contrast by their recent dire results. They had a point of sorts. The semi-finals are split by a draw that attempts to break up voting blocs but the process is very much based on neighbour voting rather than ex-pats. The semis are still however 100% televoting (except in Spain this year, when after requesting to switch which semi-final they had to show, TVE decided last night to stay with a Madrid Open tennis match meaning their Eurovision broadcast was delayed, and they abandoned their televote: some Spanish knuckles will be rapped by the EBU).

This means that even with a split of nations there will still be some automatic votes based on diaspora and neighbours. Also, as with the first semi the songs at the end of the draw did much much better than those at the start, this skewing is way more pronounced than in a contest final, which let's face it is an event that people are going to sit down and watch from the start, unlike a lower-profile semi-final.

The end result is that (Serbia apart), pretty much the usual suspects have made it through to the final. The downside of course is that a whole host of countries will no doubt feel even more disenfranchised from the whole process:

Andorra have now taken part in six semi-finals, without a sniff of a final place. Montenegro have had three goes. The Czech Republic were for ages the last country in Europe to resist the charms of Eurovision and after three DNQs you can see they might think they were right all along.

On top of this there's a string of long standing entrants who now, barring luck of the draw, may never see the Eurovision final again:

Belgium, Cyprus, Ireland, Netherlands, Switzerland. Fourteen victories between them. Austria and Monaco (one each) already gave up the ghost. Who will be next to leave?

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Last Predictions Semi Two

Righty ho, here's who we think will qualify from semi two:

Serbia: with televoting they'd qualify with a cat farting for three minutes
Norway: the earth would flip on it's axis if this missed out Y
Denmark: radio-friendly but a marginal qualifier Y
Azerbaijan: poppytastic and diasporatastic too - how can it fail? Y
Greece: see Serbia Y
Lithuania: utter gorgeousness that surely must make the final (mustn't it?) Y
Moldova: chanty/ethnic enough to scrape through Y
Albania: draw and ex-pats just enough Y
Ukraine: overblown gimmickss and neighbours mean an undeserved shoe-in Y
Estonia: draw will squeeze it through Y

Hope we're wrong on some of these from a preference point of view, but we'll see!

Results: we got 9/10.. absolutely thrilled that the Serbian machine has now got too complacent for it's own good and has been shot down in very deserved flames... otherwise, we're thrilled for Lithuania, bring on the final..

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They Shall Not Pass: Semi One Reflections

So the serious stuff and of course the fun has begun. On Tuesday eighteen countries took part in the first semi-final of 2009 and ten made it to the final. The show was a curate's egg. Great postcards and stage backdrop, horrendous unrehearsed hosts and some lacklustre sound and camera shots.

The most striking thing about the results (and of course we don't know yet the full breakdown of scores and who got the tenth place chosen by juries) is that all nine of the countries participating who qualified from their semi last year did the very same this year, and all those who failed last year failed this time too. An utter coincidence? Maybe not.

The two semi-final scenario, splitting countries into pots, was brought in after the notorious 2007 semi-final when all ten qualifiers were from Eastern Europe, and was intended to curb the worst excesses of neighbour/ex-pat voting. After last year, it appeared to be a success as more Western countries qualified, yet last night shows that it is still far from a perfect system.

As fewer points are needed to qualify, smaller alliances and diaspora have the desired effect. While the full scores won't be released until the weekend, it's a safe bet that like last year the Scandinavian love-in gave each of its songs a shoe-in to the final, and the likes of Armenia and Turkey have such a huge ex-pat pool tha even diluted it is more than enough. Does anyone seriously think that if the startlingly bad Hadise was singing for her adopted Belgium rather than her native Turkey, she would NOT have been packing her bags today for home?

Once more there was a huge bias towards the latter half of performance order. Eight of the last ten songs qualified, six of the first eight did not. Hardly surprising in a midweek semi-final when the majority of viewers tune-in part way through.

It's quite clear that the Eurovision final is an impossible dream for many countries unless they chance on a late, late draw: effectively the countries without ex-pats or neighbours. Sounds familiar? This is the third, vain attempt of both the Czech Republic and Montenegro to make the final, and the sixth of poor old, naive Andorra (below). Monaco and Austria gave up the ghost a couple of years ago and you have to wonder about Switzerland, the country who gave us all this great contest before most of us were even born.

50/50 public/juries for the semi-finals? Sounds good to me.



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Last Predictions Semi One

Well here we are ready for the first semi and time as in previous years for Nul Points to place it's virtual neck on the line. Before rehearsals commenced we predicted (in draw order):

Sweden - Armenia - Switzerland - Turkey - Israel - FYR Macedonia - Romania - Finland - Malta - Bosnia

After a week and a bit of blogs from rehearsals, do we want to stick or twist?

Well just one... we'll bring in Belarus and we'll kick out Switzerland (even though we love it dearly, at the end of the day they are too damn rich to have any minging ex-pats!) ... so the Nul Points prediction for Semi One is (da da!)

Belarus - rocky gorgeousness that's not TOO scary
Sweden - they always qualify (don't they)? Y
Armenia - best dance and a possible final winner Y

Turkey - shouty horribleness but it's Turkey and it's televoting Y
Israel - cute combo will catch the imagination Y
FYR Macedonia - will qualify because it's Macedonia
Romania - full-on fun that will score high in the final Y
Finland - too clubby to do "that" well but will scrape through, maybe last in the final Y
Malta - this woman can do little wrong at Eurovision even with her weakest song Y
Bosnia - will walk this weaker semi-final without breaking sweat Y

EDIT: we got wrong: Portugal! Iceland! we're happy though to only have 8/10!...

Tune in Wednesday for us admitting being totally wrong! xx

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The Circus Is In Town!

Well, after months of national selections, endless "new" versions and artists trolling across the continent, the circus has begun with the first day of rehearsals in Moscow. Yes that's nine whole days before the first semi-final. Some things are much the same as usual. The fans masquerading as "journalists" are already sending breathless minute-by-minute analysis of every last gesture from the rehearsal stage, and tweaking their all-important predictions every five minutes (although to be fair, their reports taken en bloc are usually a good guide to what will and won't work on stage). Some things are different, though. Less than a fortnight before the contest, Russian TV are still to confirm the identity of the contest hosts!.

After a bit of last-minute hysteria about swine-flu, the Eurovision family is indeed convening in the Russian capital for the fifty-fourth contest, and that's something to celebrate. With 50 percent jury voting, hopes are high that the unsavoury voting patterns of the last few years will be at the very least curtailed. In the UK, a concerted effort from the BBC really has lent a "now or never" angle to the UK's Eurovision participation. Are you excited yet? We are.....

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